Wednesday, 9 June 2010

Labour Leaders past and future

New Leaders of the Labour party are chosen either following the death, defeat or resignation of the incumbent Prime Minister. Let's list them. Chosen after defeat:
Hugh Gaitskell
Michael Foot
Neil Kinnock
John Smith
Key point: not a whiff of electoral success between them. Incidentally, I record here my mystification at the secular canonisation of the late John Smith. Nice guy he may very well have been, but he had the word loser stamped all over him (or, if not loser, "fat dull bank manager"). His floundering performance as Shadow Chancellor at the 1992 General Election may not have cost Labour the election, but must have hurt it significantly. He showed early signs of "Gordon Brownitis", i.e. excessive worthiness and Scottishness, which would in due course have no doubt succeeded in alienating the English voter. Obesity isn't a good look in the television age either. His death, sad and untimely as it was, must have been a blessing in disguise for the Labour party.
Next: chosen after the resignation of an incumbent Prime Minister:
James Callaghan
Gordon Brown
Key point: went straight on to defeat and political oblivion. A definite poisoned chalice (after all, both Gaitskell and Kinnock got second chances).
Finally: chosen after death:
Harold Wilson
Tony Blair
Key point: definitely the way to go. 6 General Election wins between them, only one defeat, 18 years in Downing Street, both got out in time. Both subsequently vilified, not least by their own supporters. No one seems to love a winner when they've retired, particularly not the Labour Party. Minor points: both English, both Oxford, both middle class, both on the right of the Labour party (although Wilson of course had positioned himself on the left in opposition, rather cunningly). Both had some or a lot of "south appeal". Wilson very very clever (and a little bit charming), Blair very very charming, if you like that sort of thing (and a little bit clever).

If you take this seriously, it means it may not matter too much who Labour picks this time, as they aren't ever going to take office anyway. The best bet would be the one most likely to die, as that will pave the way for a charismatic successor. On that basis I would go for Ed Balls, as he is clearly the fattest with the most suppressed rage, but they all look depressingly young and healthy (from Labour's point of view).

In fact, I would probably go for Ed Balls anyway. This election is not about picking a Prime Minister after all, but a Leader of the Opposition. To use the horrid "Apprentice" phrase, Ed Balls is the one with fire in his belly (along with a large number of pies) [clearly, fat is a socialist issue] who will stick it to the Tories and rally the troops. Worrying about whether the Labour leader gets on with Obama or Merkel is premature at this stage.

Of the others, David M. is not a bad sort, although clearly an enormous poltroon. Brother Ed. is said to be more a man of the people - I guess it's all relative - but has an irritatingly nasal voice and a rubbery face. The other one is a non-entity.
Final point: Celts are bad news for Labour: Kinnock (Scottish ancestry, Welsh); John Smith (Scottish); James Callaghan (the Englishman from Wales with the Irish name); Gordon Brown (need one say?). Blair made jolly sure no one would ever think he had had anything to do with Scotland. Perhaps it's the curse of Ramsay MacDonald. You may rightly say that's not an issue this time round. But the odds of picking a (non-practising) Jew are fairly good. Not an issue in these enlightened times, one might think, but interestingly it's not an ethnicity anyone seems to think worth making anything of in the midst of all the claims that the contenders are all white, middle class, male etc. I think I'm right in thinking that pretty well no political party has been led by anyone remotely Jewish either before or after the (Anglican) Disraeli, although there have of course been many distinguished Jewish ministers. I guess we'll have a few years before having to chalk it up as a plus or a minus.
UPDATE
Of course, I haven't reckoned with Diane Abbott getting enough nominations. She would clearly put the cat amongst the pigeons as far as some of the above is concerned. Personally, I should have thought her too alienating to win, in any case, and if elected too languid to be a good opposition leader (or indeed leader of any sort). That said, she is probably as unhealthy as Ed Balls, so not too bad from that point of view.

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